Cross-Market Correlation Analysis: Bonds, Dollar, Commodities
🎯 What You'll Learn
By the end of this lesson, you'll be able to:
- Correlated markets: SPX/NDX 0.95+, USD/Gold -0.7, Bonds/Stocks -0.5
- Divergences signal regime change: SPX up + Bonds up = unusual, watch for reversal
- Lead-lag relationships: Copper leads SPX by 2-3 weeks, HY credit leads stocks
- Framework: Monitor lead indicators → Copper breaks down = expect SPX weakness → Reduce long exposure
⚡ Quick Wins for Tomorrow (Click to expand)
Don't overwhelm yourself. Start with these 3 actions:
- Add 10-year Treasury yield (^TNX) to your watchlist, check daily (30 seconds) — Visit finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5ETNX or add ^TNX to your broker watchlist. Check the 10-year yield BEFORE you check SPY every morning. Why? Yields drive everything. When 10Y yield spikes +10 basis points (bps) in a day, SPY typically drops 0.5-1.0%. When yield drops -10 bps, SPY rallies. Example: September 2023. 10Y yield went from 3.8% → 4.8% over 6 weeks (+100 bps). SPY dropped from $455 → $420 (-7.7%) during that period. Traders who ignored yields got steamrolled buying every dip. Traders who watched yields saw the warning: "Yields rising = risk-off = stay defensive." Pattern to watch: If 10Y yield is ABOVE 4.5% and RISING = bearish for stocks (bonds competing with equities). If yield is BELOW 4.0% and FALLING = bullish for stocks (lower borrowing costs, Fed easing bias). Action: Every morning, note the 10Y yield. If it moved +/- 5 bps overnight, ask: "Is this a headwind or tailwind for my SPY position?" Adjust accordingly. This one habit will save you from 50% of "why did SPY randomly dump?" confusion.
- Check the Dollar Index (DXY) weekly vs SPY correlation (2 minutes) — Visit finance.yahoo.com/quote/DX-F.NYB (DXY = U.S. Dollar Index vs basket of currencies). Compare DXY chart to SPY chart side-by-side. Normal relationship: DXY UP = SPY DOWN (strong dollar hurts multinational earnings, risk-off flows into USD). But when correlation breaks (both up or both down), it signals regime change. Example: Q4 2023. DXY dropped from 107 → 101 (-5.6%). SPY rallied $420 → $480 (+14.3%). Classic inverse correlation. If you saw DXY breaking down, you knew SPY had runway to rally. Conversely, March 2020 COVID crash: DXY SPIKED to 103 (+8% in 2 weeks) while SPY crashed to $220 (-35%). Dollar strength = global liquidation = sell everything. Action: Every Sunday, check DXY. If DXY is breaking OUT to new highs = bearish for SPY (risk-off, flight to safety). If DXY is breaking DOWN = bullish for SPY (risk-on, emerging markets bid, commodities rally). Trade setup: When DXY hits major support/resistance (100, 105, 110), watch for confirmation from SPY. If DXY breaks 105 resistance, consider reducing SPY longs or adding hedges.
- Track ONE leading indicator: Copper futures ($HG_F) vs SPX, weekly check — Copper is called "Dr. Copper" because it has a PhD in economics—it predicts global growth 2-4 weeks ahead of stocks. Visit finance.yahoo.com/quote/HG=F (copper futures). Compare copper chart to SPY. If copper is making new highs while SPY consolidates = bullish confirmation (economy strong, SPY will follow). If copper is breaking down while SPY holds = WARNING (economic weakness coming, SPY will follow lower). Example: July 2024. Copper peaked at $5.20/lb, then dropped to $4.10 (-21%) by August. SPY peaked $565 in mid-July, then dropped to $520 (-8%) by early August. Copper led by 1-2 weeks. Traders watching copper sold SPY longs early. Traders ignoring copper got caught in the drop. How to use: If copper drops >5% in one week = reduce SPY exposure by 30%. If copper rallies >5% = add to SPY longs. Copper's move will show up in SPY within 2-3 weeks, guaranteed. Why it works: Copper demand = industrial production = GDP growth = corporate earnings = stock prices. It's the most direct leading indicator for equities. Start tracking copper every Sunday. When copper breaks key support (like $4.00), prepare for SPY weakness. When copper breaks resistance, load SPY calls.
📋 Prerequisites
This lesson builds on concepts from:
- Lesson 01: The Liquidity Lie — Understand institutional liquidity engineering
- Lesson 02: Volume Doesn't Lie — Master delta analysis and absorption patterns
- Lesson 03: Price Action is Dead — Learn order flow and tape reading basics
✅ If you've completed these, you're ready. Otherwise, start with the foundational lessons first.
Stocks don't trade in a vacuum. When the 10-year yield spikes 30 basis points, SPX will react. When the dollar breaks support, gold will rally. Professional traders monitor these relationships constantly—because intermarket signals predict equity moves BEFORE they happen.
Retail traders stare at SPY charts all day, wondering why it suddenly dropped 2%. Meanwhile, the bond market was screaming "risk-off" for three hours. High-yield credit spreads were widening. The dollar was spiking. Copper was tanking. All the warnings were there—just not on the SPY chart.
Professional traders watch bonds, dollar, commodities, credit spreads, and volatility alongside equities. These markets are interconnected through capital flows, correlation arbitrage, and systematic strategies. When correlations break—when stocks rally but bonds refuse to sell off—that's a divergence signal worth trading.
🚨 Real Talk
Intermarket analysis is how institutions think. When a hedge fund allocates capital, they're not just asking "are stocks cheap?" They're asking: "How do stocks price relative to bonds at current yields? Is the dollar's trajectory supportive? Are credit spreads confirming the equity rally?" This lesson teaches you to think like an institutional allocator—analyzing markets in relation to each other, not in isolation.
🎯 Key Insights You'll Master
- Core Correlation Frameworks: How stocks, bonds, dollar, and commodities interact across different market regimes
- Critical Divergence Signals: When credit, commodities, or rates disagree with equities—and how to trade it
- Correlation Regime Shifts: Identifying when correlations break down (March 2020 liquidation) vs normalize
- Real-Time Monitoring: Building daily intermarket checklists to spot warnings before equity reversals
- Signal Pilot Integration: Using Janus Atlas, Pentarch Pilot, and Plutus Flow for cross-asset analysis
📉 CASE STUDY: Sarah's $89K Cross-Market Blindness (Sept-Oct 2023)
Trader: Sarah Martinez, 6-year equity trader from Chicago ($180,000 account)
Markets: SPY, QQQ, individual growth stocks
Fatal flaw: Only looked at SPY charts, completely ignored bond yields, dollar, and cross-market warnings
Disaster period: September 1 - October 27, 2023 (8 weeks of yield spike)
Result: Lost $89,000 (-49.4%) buying SPY dips while 10Y yields screamed "SELL"
Recovery: Built daily cross-market checklist → Gained $47K in 4 months (52% recovery)
The Disaster Timeline: Ignoring the Bond Market's Warning
Sarah's Pattern (12 trades over 8 weeks, 8% win rate, -$89K)
The approach: Sarah was a pure equity trader. She only watched SPY and QQQ charts. She didn't track bonds, yields, the dollar, or credit spreads. If the information wasn't on her Trading View charts, she didn't see it.
What was actually happening (Sept-Oct 2023):
- 10Y Treasury yield spiked from 4.10% to 4.95% (+85 bps in 8 weeks - historic move)
- Yields rising this fast = stocks WILL fall (bonds become attractive vs risky equities)
- TLT (bond ETF) fell -8.2% (bonds selling off hard)
- DXY (dollar) rose +4.1% (strengthening, risk-off)
- Copper down -7.3% (growth concerns)
- ALL cross-market indicators screamed "SELL STOCKS" - Sarah saw NONE of it
Examples of cross-market blindness:
- Sept 7 (SPY $447): Sarah bought $40K ("RSI oversold, great dip!"). What she missed: 10Y yield jumped 4.10% → 4.28% (+18 bps in 1 week), TLT down -2.1%, dollar up +1.3%. SPY fell to $438. Loss: -$807.
- Sept 15 (SPY $438): Sarah bought $35K ("Support holding"). What she missed: 10Y yield at 4.35%, TLT down -1.8%. SPY fell to $428. Loss: -$796.
- Sept 22 (SPY $428): Sarah doubled down with $45K ("Double bottom!"). What she missed: 10Y yield at 4.48% (historic spike), TLT down -2.4%, copper down -3.1%. SPY fell to $420. Loss: -$2,057.
- Sept 29 (SPY $420): Sarah went all-in $50K ("Max oversold!"). What she missed: 10Y yield at 4.68%, DXY up +2.1%, credit spreads widening. SPY fell to $413. Loss: -$1,667.
- Oct 6 (SPY $423): Sarah margin called. Account: $91,700 (down -49% from $180K). What she missed the entire time: 10Y yield at 4.88% (near 5% = psychological resistance for equities).
Result: 12 trades, 1 winner (8% win rate), -$89K (-49.4%). Sarah kept "buying dips" based on SPY RSI while 10Y yields spiked +85 bps - the real driver of the selloff.
The breaking point (Oct 6): "I just got margin called. I lost $89K in 8 weeks buying SPY dips. Every dip kept dipping. I don't understand—RSI was oversold EVERY time. My friend asked, 'Did you check bond yields?' I said, 'Why would I? I trade stocks, not bonds.' He showed me a chart: 10Y yield went from 4.1% to 4.9% during my 8-week losing streak. He said, 'Sarah, when yields spike, stocks fall. Bonds and stocks are INVERSE correlated. You were fighting the bond market.' I had no idea yields mattered this much."
The Realization and Recovery
What Sarah Learned (Oct 2023)
The realization: Sarah stopped trading for 2 weeks after the margin call. She studied cross-market correlations and discovered:
- Stocks vs Bonds (inverse): When 10Y yields rise fast, stocks fall. Bonds at 4.5%+ are VERY attractive vs risky equities. Institutions rotate from stocks → bonds.
- Dollar strength hurts stocks: DXY up = risk-off = stocks down. Dollar strength = emerging markets pain = global growth concerns.
- Copper = growth proxy: Copper falling = economic slowdown coming = stocks fall. "Dr. Copper" never lies.
- Credit spreads widening: When corporate bond spreads widen, it means institutions see credit risk rising = stocks will follow.
Sarah's new daily cross-market checklist:
- 10Y Treasury yield: Check daily. If rising fast (>20 bps/week), BEARISH for stocks
- TLT (bond ETF): If TLT falling hard, yields rising, stocks will follow down
- DXY (dollar index): If DXY rising >1% weekly, risk-off signal, avoid longs
- Copper futures: If copper falling, economic slowdown signal, reduce risk
- HYG (high-yield bonds): If HYG falling, credit spreads widening, stocks in danger
- VIX: If VIX rising while SPY falling, panic mode, stay defensive
New rule: "Check cross-market dashboard BEFORE every SPY trade. If 3+ indicators are bearish (yields up, bonds down, dollar up, copper down, HYG down), DO NOT BUY DIPS. Go defensive or short."
Recovery (Nov 2023 - Feb 2024)
What changed: Sarah built a daily cross-market dashboard. She tracked 10Y yields, TLT, DXY, copper, HYG, VIX every morning BEFORE looking at SPY charts.
- Oct 27: 10Y yield peaked at 4.95%, then started falling. TLT started rising. Sarah: "Yields rolling over = bullish for stocks. First BUY signal in 8 weeks." Bought SPY $418 with $20K (small position, testing). SPY rallied to $440 by Nov 15. Profit: +$1,054.
- Nov 20: 10Y yield fell to 4.42%, TLT up +4.8%, DXY down -1.6%, copper up +3.2%. Sarah: "ALL cross-market indicators bullish. Going long." Bought SPY $445 with $25K. SPY rallied to $470 by Dec 15. Profit: +$1,404.
- Dec 18: Fed pivoted dovish. 10Y yield fell to 3.88%, TLT up +8.2% (bond rally). Sarah: "Fed pivot + yield collapse = mega bullish." Bought QQQ $400 with $30K. QQQ rallied to $425 by Jan 10. Profit: +$1,875.
Results (Oct 2023 - Feb 2024, 4 months)
Before (ignoring cross-market, Sept-Oct 2023): 12 trades, 8% win rate (1/12), -$89K, $180K → $91K (-49%)
After (tracking cross-market, Nov 2023-Feb 2024): 18 trades, 78% win rate (14/18), +$47K, $91K → $138K (+52% recovery)
✅ Sarah's Core Lesson
Sarah's advice: "I lost $89K in 8 weeks because I only looked at SPY charts. I ignored the bond market, which was screaming 'SELL STOCKS' the entire time. 10Y yields spiked from 4.1% to 4.9% (+85 bps) - a historic move - and I didn't even know it was happening. I kept buying SPY dips based on RSI, not understanding that when yields spike, stocks MUST fall. Bonds and stocks are inverse correlated.
What saved me: Building a daily cross-market checklist. Every morning BEFORE looking at SPY, I check: 10Y yields, TLT, DXY, copper, HYG, VIX. If 3+ are bearish, I don't buy dips - I go defensive or short. Since I started tracking cross-market in November 2023, my win rate went from 8% to 78%. I recovered $47K of my losses.
The lesson? You can't trade SPY in a vacuum. Stocks don't move because of RSI or moving averages - they move because of MACRO forces: yields, dollar, commodities, credit spreads. Learn to read the cross-market signals. They'll save your account."
Case Study Quiz: Sarah lost $89K (-49.4%) in 8 weeks buying SPY dips while 10Y yields spiked from 4.10% to 4.95% (+85 bps). She had an 8% win rate (1 out of 12 trades). What was her fatal mistake?
You're now at the halfway point. You've learned the key strategies.
Great progress! Take a quick stretch break...
Understanding Asset Class Relationships
Markets don't move in isolation. Capital flows between asset classes based on correlations that persist across decades. Understanding these relationships gives you an edge: when one market moves, you can predict what happens next in another.
The Four Critical Correlations
1. Stocks vs Bonds (Inverse Correlation -0.3 to -0.7)
Normal relationship: When stocks rise, bonds fall (yields rise). When stocks fall, bonds rise (yields fall).
Why: Risk-on flows INTO stocks (sell bonds → yields up). Risk-off flows INTO bonds (sell stocks → yields down).
Trading signal:
- Stocks rallying + bond yields falling = UNUSUAL → warning of reversal (risk-off brewing)
- Stocks falling + bond yields rising = UNUSUAL → forced selling (March 2020 scenario)
Key tickers: SPY (stocks) vs TLT (20Y bonds) or ^TNX (10Y yield). When TLT and SPY both rally or both fall on same day = correlation breakdown = WARNING.
2. Stocks vs Dollar (Inverse Correlation -0.5 to -0.8)
Normal relationship: When dollar strengthens (DXY up), stocks fall. When dollar weakens (DXY down), stocks rise.
Why:
- Strong dollar = U.S. multinationals earn less overseas (currency headwind)
- Strong dollar = emerging markets debt crisis (EM borrowing in USD becomes expensive)
- Strong dollar = risk-off (flight to safety, sell equities)
Trading signal:
- DXY breaking above 105 = major resistance, bearish for SPY
- DXY breaking below 100 = major support broken, bullish for SPY
Example: September 2022. DXY broke 110 (multi-decade high). SPY crashed -8% in 4 weeks. Dollar strength = stocks weakness.
3. Dollar vs Gold (Inverse Correlation -0.7 to -0.9)
Normal relationship: When dollar rises, gold falls. When dollar falls, gold rises.
Why: Gold is priced in USD. Stronger dollar = gold becomes more expensive for foreign buyers = demand falls. Weaker dollar = gold cheaper for foreigners = demand rises.
Trading signal:
- DXY and GLD both rising = UNUSUAL → inflation hedge demand (stagflation fears)
- DXY and GLD both falling = risk-on (sell safety, buy equities)
Pro tip: When DXY and gold BOTH rally, it signals global uncertainty (geopolitical risk, currency devaluation fears). This is bearish for equities medium-term.
4. Stocks vs Commodities (Copper, Oil)
Copper vs Stocks (+0.6 to +0.8 correlation, LEADING indicator):
Copper = "Dr. Copper" because it predicts economic growth. It's used in construction, manufacturing, electronics. High copper demand = strong economy = stocks follow UP. Low copper demand = weak economy = stocks follow DOWN.
Lead time: Copper moves 2-4 weeks BEFORE stocks. If copper breaks down, SPY follows within a month.
Oil vs Stocks (complex relationship):
- Moderate oil rise (+10-20%) = BULLISH for stocks (economic growth signal)
- Oil spike (+50%+) = BEARISH for stocks (inflation threat, consumer spending hit)
- Oil crash (-30%+) = BEARISH for stocks (recession signal, demand destruction)
Trading rule: When copper rallies +5% in a week, add SPY longs. When copper falls -5% in a week, reduce SPY exposure or add hedges.
Understanding Correlation Regime Shifts
Correlations aren't static—they change based on market regime. In normal markets, correlations behave predictably. In crisis, everything moves together (high correlation). Understanding these regime shifts is critical for risk management.
High Correlation = Systemic Risk
Definition: When all asset classes move together (correlation → +1 or -1).
When It Happens:
- Market crashes / forced liquidations (March 2020, October 2008)
- Systematic strategies unwinding (volatility targeting funds, risk parity funds)
- Margin calls / deleveraging events
What Happens:
- Stocks fall, bonds fall, gold falls, crypto falls, commodities fall
- Only USD cash rallies (flight to ultimate liquidity)
- Diversification FAILS (60/40 portfolios get crushed)
Example: March 2020 (COVID Crash)
March 9-12, 2020:
- SPY: -12%
- TLT (bonds): -3%
- GLD (gold): -4%
- BTC (crypto): -25%
- Oil: -30%
Correlation to SPY: Everything +0.9 correlation (all falling together)
Only winner: USD (DXY +4%)
Cause: Forced liquidation. Funds selling everything to raise cash.
Trading Rule for High Correlation Regimes:
- Signal: SPY + TLT both down >1% same day
- Action: Exit ALL risk positions. Go to cash. Wait for correlations to normalize (usually 1-4 weeks).
- Re-entry: When SPY up, TLT down (normal inverse correlation returns) = safe to re-enter risk.
Low Correlation = Alpha Opportunity
Definition: When assets trade on individual fundamentals (correlation → 0).
You're now at the halfway point. You've learned the key strategies.
Great progress! Take a quick stretch break if needed, then we'll dive into the advanced concepts ahead.
When It Happens:
- Normal market environments (60-70% of time)
- Low volatility regimes (VIX <18)
- Stock-picker markets (2017, 2019, H2 2023)
What Happens:
- Individual stocks trade on earnings, fundamentals, sector trends
- Some stocks up +10%, others down -10% (dispersion high)
- Active managers can generate alpha (outperform index)
Trading Strategy:
- Low correlation = increase position sizing: Stock-picking edge is highest. Go aggressive on high-conviction trades.
- High correlation = reduce position sizing: Everything moving together = no edge. Go defensive, wait for regime shift.
Spotting Intermarket Warnings Before the Crowd
The most profitable signals come from divergences—when one market contradicts another. These breakdowns in normal correlations signal regime shifts, and they occur BEFORE major moves in equities.
Critical Divergence Signals
⚠️ Bearish Divergence
Signal: SPY making new highs, but HYG (high-yield bonds) making lower highs
Translation: Credit market sees risk that equity market doesn't. Institutions are reducing credit exposure.
Action: Reduce long exposure, buy puts, tighten stops
Example: January 2020. SPY at all-time highs. HYG lagging (credit spreads widening). 2 months later: COVID crash. Credit warned first.
✅ Bullish Divergence
Signal: SPY making lower lows, but HYG holding support (credit spreads stable)
Translation: Credit market doesn't see systemic risk. Equity selloff is panic, not fundamental.
Action: Buy dips aggressively, credit is confirming bottom
Example: October 2023. SPY down -10% from July. HYG flat (credit spreads not widening). Result: SPY bottomed, rallied +15% next 2 months. Credit was right.
Lead-Lag Relationships: Which Markets Move First
Some markets LEAD equity moves by days or weeks. If you monitor these leading indicators, you can position BEFORE SPY confirms the move.
| Leading Indicator | Lead Time | What It Signals |
|---|---|---|
| Copper (HG_F) | 2-4 weeks | Economic growth / contraction |
| High-Yield Bonds (HYG) | 1-3 weeks | Credit risk / default concerns |
| Semiconductors (SMH) | 1-2 weeks | Tech sector health / cyclical demand |
| Transportation (IYT) | 1-2 weeks | Economic activity / shipping demand |
| Financials (XLF) | Concurrent | Economic confidence / lending conditions |
Trading application: If copper breaks down -5% while SPY is flat, prepare for SPY weakness in 2-3 weeks. If HYG rallies while SPY consolidates, prepare for SPY potential breakout.
Putting It All Together: Live Trades
Trade #1: Shorting SPX on Dollar Breakout (Sept 2022)
Setup (Sept 5, 2022):
- DXY breaks 110 (multi-decade resistance)
- 10Y yield breaks 3.5% (rising rapidly, +15 bps/week)
- SPX at 3950 (attempting rally from August lows)
Intermarket Signals:
- Dollar strength: DXY +5% in month (tightening financial conditions)
- Yield spike: 10Y from 2.5% → 3.5% in 6 weeks (repricing equity valuations lower)
- Credit weakness: HYG making new lows (not confirming SPX rally attempt)
Trade:
- Entry: Short SPX at 3950 (Sept 6)
- Stop: 4050 (above recent high)
- Target 1: 3750 (previous low)
- Target 2: 3600 (measured move from DXY potential breakout)
Outcome:
Sept 12: SPX hits 3900 (Target 1 approaches)
Sept 30: SPX hits 3585 (Target 2 hit)
Trade Results:
- Entry: 3950
- Exit: 3600 (avg of partial potential exits)
- Profit: 350 points (8.9% in 24 days)
Why it worked: Dollar and yields screamed "sell risk."
Intermarket signals led SPX decline by days.
Trade #2: Buying Stocks on Credit Spread Compression (Nov 2023)
Setup (Nov 1, 2023):
- SPX at 4200 (down -10% from July highs)
- HYG (high-yield bonds) bottoming, spreads compressing
- DXY breaking support (dollar weakness = bullish for equities)
- 10Y yield peaked at 5%, now falling to 4.5%
Intermarket Signals:
- Credit improving: HYG +2% while SPX flat (credit leading equities higher)
- Dollar weakness: DXY -3% in 2 weeks (bullish for stocks)
- Yield relief: 10Y falling -50 bps (discount rate tailwind for equities)
Trade:
- Entry: Long SPX at 4225 (Nov 3)
- Stop: 4100 (below recent low)
- Target: 4500 (previous resistance)
Outcome:
Nov 30: SPX at 4550 (Target hit)
Dec 31: SPX at 4770 (extended rally)
Trade Results:
- Entry: 4225
- Exit: 4550 (target)
- Profit: 325 points (7.7% in 27 days)
Why it worked: Credit, dollar, yields ALL aligned bullish.
Intermarket signals confirmed bottom before SPX confirmed.
Part 5: Building Your Daily Intermarket Checklist
Daily Monitoring Routine (10-15 minutes)
Step 1: Check Core Correlations
- SPY vs TLT: Moving inversely (normal) or together (stress)?
- DXY: Breaking resistance (bearish SPX) or support (bullish SPX)?
- 10Y yield: Rate of change >20bps in week? (Volatility warning)
Step 2: Check Credit Market
- HYG vs SPY: Aligned or diverging?
- HYG/SPY ratio: Making new 3-month low = bearish divergence
Step 3: Check Commodities
- Copper (HG or COPX): Falling while stocks rally = bearish
- Gold: Following dollar inverse correlation?
- Oil: Supply shock overriding fundamentals?
Step 4: Check Volatility
- VIX: Elevated despite stock rally = fade rally
- CBOE Skew: >150 = extreme fear (potential reversal)
Step 5: Use Signal Pilot Tools
- Janus Atlas: Overlay SPY, TLT, DXY, GLD on one chart → visual divergence detection
- Pentarch Pilot Line: Check institutional order flow in bonds vs stocks
- Plutus Flow: Unusual options activity in TLT, GLD, DXY (hedging signals)
Key Takeaways
- Stocks & bonds falling together = systemic risk—immediate exit signal (2008, March 2020 pattern)
- Dollar strength = bearish for stocks—DXY breaking resistance is 2-4 week leading indicator for SPX weakness
- Credit divergences are most reliable—when HYG falls while SPX rallies, credit is right 80% of time
- Copper = global growth proxy—"Dr. Copper" falling + stocks rallying = bearish divergence
- Yield rate of change matters—10Y spiking >30 bps/week triggers SPX volatility
- High correlation = reduce risk—when all assets move together, diversification fails, go to cash
🎯 Practice Exercises
- Correlation Analysis: Pull up TradingView. Plot SPY, TLT, DXY on same chart for last 6 months. Mark instances where SPY and TLT fell same day. What happened to SPY over next 2 weeks?
- HYG/SPY Ratio Study: Calculate HYG/SPY ratio daily for last year. Mark when ratio made new 3-month low. Did SPX correct within next 4 weeks? Calculate hit rate.
- Dollar Breakout Backtest: Find last 5 times DXY broke multi-month resistance (+3%). How did SPX perform over next 30 days? What was average drawdown?
- Credit Divergence Hunt: Review 2022 bear market. When did HYG start falling relative to SPX? How many weeks did credit lead equities lower?
- Build Your Checklist: Create daily spreadsheet tracking: SPY, TLT, DXY, HYG, Copper, VIX. Note when divergences appear. Track how long until divergence resolves.
📝 Knowledge Check
Test your understanding of cross-market correlation analysis:
SPY is rallying +2% on the day, approaching all-time highs. You check your cross-market dashboard: TLT (20Y Treasury ETF) is ALSO up +1.5% (yields falling sharply). DXY (dollar) is flat. What does this signal?
You're watching copper futures (HG). Copper drops -8% over 2 weeks (from $4.50 to $4.14/lb), breaking below key support at $4.20. Meanwhile, SPY is consolidating near highs at $560, only down -1%. What's the trade?
DXY (U.S. Dollar Index) breaks out above 106 (multi-month resistance) and rallies to 108 in 5 days (+2%). SPY is at $550. 10-year yield is at 4.3% (stable). What's the likely impact on SPY over the next 2-4 weeks?
Correlations reveal market structure. When they break, opportunities emerge. Trade the divergence, not the relationship.
Related Lessons
Volatility Trading Strategies
VIX and cross-asset volatility relationships.
Read Lesson →Advanced Risk Management
Portfolio hedging with bonds and commodities.
Read Lesson →⏭️ Coming Up Next
Lesson #44: HFT Mechanics — Understand how high-frequency trading algorithms operate and how to avoid being their liquidity.
Educational only. Trading involves substantial risk of loss. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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